RUBT Rate on Tetris Money

🟢 USDT/RUBT: 81.06 — Exchange Rate Board
🟢 USD/RUB (Bank of Russia): 81.29
🟢 USD/RUB F (MOEX): 81.78

🤔 How is the financial sector affecting the ruble? Breaking down the drivers and hidden risks:

🟢 Government on pause: The fiscal rule has been frozen

Mikhail Mishustin signed a decree suspending foreign currency purchases for reserves until July 1, 2026. Now 100% of revenue from high oil prices ($96–105 for Urals) goes directly to the budget and the exchange rate. This creates a “concrete floor” for the ruble.

🟢 Dividends: Sber’s scale vs. MTS yield

The stock market is supported by expectations of payouts totaling 3.2–3.4 trillion rubles.
🟢Sberbank: leads in volume — it plans to pay out ~795 billion rubles (37.75 rubles per share, yield ~12%).

🟢MTS: leads in efficiency — under its dividend policy, the company is required to pay at least 35 rubles per share, giving a yield of ~15.7%. This is one of the best indicators on the market.

🟢 Selective records: Who is actually in the green?

It is important to understand: not everyone is setting records right now. The high 15%+ rate has started to “eat into” business profits.
🟢Among the winners: Retailer Lenta surpassed 1 trillion rubles in revenue (+24.2%) and increased profit by 56%. The IT sector (Arenadata) grew by 46%.

🟢Under pressure: Even giant X5 Group, despite posting record revenue, faced a 14% drop in net profit due to expensive loans. Mid-sized businesses are having an even harder time.

🟢 Currency barrier: Decree No. 193

Starting from April 1, it is no longer possible to take more than $100,000 in cash to EAEU countries (Armenia, Kazakhstan, etc.) without bank documents confirming the origin of the funds. Controls at 17 key airports are intended to stop the “gray” outflow of capital.

Forecast and Conclusion
The ruble is holding its ground in the 80–82 range thanks to the “switching off” of the fiscal rule and dividend-driven demand. However, the fragile balance in the stock market shows that businesses are starting to tire of the high rate, and Lenta’s records are more the exception than the rule.

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