RUBT Rate on Tetris Money

🟢 USDT/RUBT: 80.97 — Rate Board
🟢 USD/RUB (Bank of Russia): 80.96
🟢 USD/RUB F (MOEX): 80.78

🤔 What is moving the market today?

🟢 Normalization of yuan liquidity

The crisis-driven yuan shortage that pushed rates upward in early March has faded away. RUSFAR CNY rates plunged from peak levels of 37% to 7.23%–9.19% per annum. An additional driver was the return of 14.3 billion yuan to the system after Rosneft’s bond settlements were completed. This removed speculative pressure and allowed the ruble to strengthen.

🟢 NDD factor: March tax peak

The current week marks the peak of Additional Income Tax (NDD) payments. March payments from the oil and gas sector are expected to be 1.6 times higher than at the beginning of the year. Exporters are forced to sell foreign currency aggressively to meet their obligations to the budget, creating a temporary supply surplus in the market and strengthening RUB.

🟢 Capital barriers

The Bank of Russia has officially extended until September–October 2026 the ban on fund withdrawals by non-residents from unfriendly countries, as well as restrictions on cash foreign currency withdrawals. With the key rate at 15.00%, these measures act as a “protective umbrella,” blocking speculative capital outflows and keeping the exchange rate within the perimeter.

🟢 Abnormally expensive oil

The price of Russia’s Urals crude exceeded $100 per barrel and reached a record $121.50 in supplies to India. At the same time, in March the Ministry of Finance sharply reduced the volume of FX interventions (from 16.5 billion to 4.6 billion rubles per day), depriving the market of a major foreign currency buyer and contributing to the ruble’s local strengthening.

Forecast and Conclusion

Forecast for Q2 2026:

April: After the tax period ends (March 28) and the Ministry of Finance likely resumes foreign currency purchases, the exchange rate is expected to correct to 83.50–85.00 ₽.

Summer: Futures dynamics and expectations of further Bank of Russia rate cuts point to a gradual weakening of the ruble into the 85.00–89.00 ₽ range by June–July.

Conclusion:

The ruble has reached a local maximum amid tax payments and the return of Rosneft liquidity. Levels of 80–81 ₽ per USDT/RUBT represent a temporary “window of opportunity” to buy foreign currency assets before the balance inevitably shifts toward weakening by summer.

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